The key to the severity of impacts in the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico from strengthening Erin depends on how soon a turn to the northwest occurs with a near-miss versus a direct hit.

As summer peaks, so does the Atlantic hurricane season, and the first major storm is now on our doorstep. According to the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), Tropical Storm Erin is on a rapid westward path and is projected to strengthen into the Atlantic's first hurricane of the season as early as Thursday,

The NHC forecast advisory predicts Erin will continue westward today before bending west‑northwest tonight and through the weekend as a weakness develops in the subtropical ridge. Forecast positions show the storm moving from 16.