FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society.

Apportionment, or the process of determining the number of seats each state has in the U.S. House of Representatives, happens like clockwork at this point. Every 10 years, the Census Bureau counts how ...

Odds may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding and third-party candidates. CORRECTION (Aug. 17, 2018, 5:45 p.m.): The first name of Rep. Mark Pocan of Wisconsin was misspelled in an earlier version ...

If you follow the headlines, your confidence in science may have taken a hit lately. Peer review? More like self-review. An investigation in November uncovered a scam in which researchers were ...

The 2020 presidential contest is starting to pick up steam, but we’re still a long way from any votes being cast. To see if we can learn anything at this stage of the election cycle, we’ve been ...

I don’t have a particularly strong take on how the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg will affect either the presidential election or the race for control of the U.S. Senate. And I’d encourage you to avoid ...

When the 2022 World Cup made its debut on Sunday, it kicked off one of the most significant in-game uses of technology in sports history. All tournament long, match balls will contain a sensor that ...

Twelve years ago, just after the 2004 Iowa caucuses, Democratic candidate Howard Dean raised his voice, balled his fist and entered political history as a man whose immoderate speaking style cost him ...

Longtime readers of FiveThirtyEight are probably familiar with our pollster ratings: letter grades that we assign to pollsters based on their historical accuracy and transparency. Since 2008, we have ...

The Voting Rights Act of 1965 was supposed to settle the debate over race, redistricting and representation. Instead, it started new ones. Since the act prohibits states from reducing a minority group ...

Looking for a last-minute Valentine’s Day reservation? It might be easier to get one this year than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic — and not just because some people are still avoiding dining ...

On Friday at noon, a Category 5 political cyclone that few journalists saw coming will deposit Donald Trump atop the Capitol Building, where he’ll be sworn in as the 45th president of the United ...