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Who is favored to be the next pope?
The question looming on many minds around the world following the death of Pope Francis is who will become the next leader of the Roman Catholic Church. The selection process , which will commence on Wednesday, will begin when all cardinals under the age of 80 who are eligible to participate are summoned to Rome to prepare for the secret conclave inside the Sistine Chapel to choose the next pontiff. This gathering typically begins between 15 to 20 days after the pope's death. While the inner workings of the conclave and how the group ultimately decides on a new pontiff remain a secret, experts are still weighing in on who could be the likely front-runners for the papacy. Francis, who was a progressive leader of the church, had appointed roughly 80% of the cardinals who are eligible to vote for the new pope, according to Miles Pattenden, historian of the Catholic Church at Oxford University. But, Pattenden told ABC News that does not mean the next pontiff will directly mirror the same values as Francis. "It's a mistake to think of [Francis' cardinals] as one homogenous block. Not all of them will have shared Francis' views," Pattenden told ABC News. "Some of them will have been open about that. He appointed them because they represented important areas or factions in the church that he thought should be represented. Other ones possibly weren't in harmony with all of Francis' views, but kept quiet about it. Now he's no more, we will see where their actual positions are." MORE: Pope Francis live updates: Cause of death released Father James Martin, a papal contributor to ABC News, said cardinals will be looking for "someone who is holy, someone who is a good evangelizer who can proclaim the gospel and someone who is a good manager." "Those three things are tough to find in one person," Martin said Monday on ABC News Live. Any baptized Catholic male is eligible to take Francis' place, but Pattenden said Pietro Parolin, the cardinal secretary of state, and Luis Tagle, the archbishop of Manila in the Philippines, are the main front-runners. Pietro Parolin Parolin, who "looks very much on paper like he should be the obvious continuity candidate," has been the secretary of state since August 2013 and is a "vastly experienced Vatican diplomat," Petterden said. "He's got all the right credentials. The question is whether most of the cardinals want that or not," Pattenden said. Cristina Traina, religious studies professor at New York's Fordham University, said Parolin is someone who is "extraordinarily versed in the internal workings of the Vatican, but that could count against him if they are interested in continuing Vatican reforms." Luis Tagle A candidate similar in "charisma and emphasis on pastoral mission" to Francis is Tagle, who was appointed by Pope Benedict as the archbishop of Manila in 2011, Pattenden said. "His downside is that he may be a little bit young, he's only 67," Pattenden said. "It's not clear that he has the right kind of administrative experience. If the cardinals are looking for someone to steady the ship and to make sure that the Vatican stays in order, maybe they want someone else."MORE: Pope Francis, everyman leader of the Roman Catholic Church, dies at 88 Even though Francis "elevated a lot of cardinals with generally progressive views" and "it would be fairly automatic they'd choose one of their own, someone in Francis' image," Pattenden said there are still conservative candidates that could gain recognition, including Hungarian Cardinal Peter Erdo, Ghanaian Cardinal Peter Turkson and Guinean Cardinal Robert Sarah. European moderates: Matteo Zuppi, Jean-Marc Aveline, Mario Grech If the "more obvious front-runners don't command majority appeal" during the selection process, Pattenden said European moderates, including Archbishop of Bologna Matteo Zuppi, Archbishop of Marseille Jean-Marc Aveline and Archbishop of Malta Mario Grech, could also potentially gain consensus among the conclave. Regardless of who the successor will be, Traina told ABC News the new papacy will vary from Francis', since not many candidates hold his stance of being pastorally progressive yet theologically conservative. Pope Francis progressives: Marc Ouellet, Willem Eijk The only two that Traina said resemble Francis' approach would be Canadian Cardinal Marc Ouelett or Dutch Cardinal Willem Eijk. "Successors have different skills than their predecessors, and that's not because people are rejecting the predecessor skills," Traina said. "It wouldn't be surprising for there to be a change, the question is, which direction?" An American: Robert Prevost Cardinal Robert Prevost, a 69-year-old from Chicago, is starting to emerge as a front-runner for papacy, Martin told ABC News days before the conclave. But Pattenden previously said the prospect of an American pope at this time was "very unlikely." "There has traditionally been a lot of wariness about a pope from the Anglosphere," Pattenden said. "I shouldn't think that the current circumstances change that, especially now with the tensions between the Vatican and the Trump administration." ABC News' Phoebe Natanson contributed to this report.
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