In Week 11, I explained the difference between anticipated regression and the so-called "Gambler's fallacy", and in Week 12, ...

Almost since its founding, FiveThirtyEight has published comprehensive averages of polls for a wide variety of questions related to U.S. politics. In June 2023, we debuted a new set of models for ...

The article discusses three trending methods: moving average, breakout, and linear regression. Moving average tends to have more losing trades but can yield large gains in good trends. Breakout has ...

An explanation of the methodology for 538's current polling averages. 538 goes through many steps to calculate its polling averages. ABC News Photo Illustration This is an old version of our polling ...

An explanation of the methodology for most of 538's current polling averages. Almost since its founding, 538 has published comprehensive averages of polls for a wide variety of questions related to ...